The Trump administration’s decision to bomb Iran dramatically marks the now just about half-century of hostility between the United States and Iran, which started in 1979 with Iran’s takeover of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran and the taking of 52 diplomatic hostages.
It remainder unsure whether or not the Iran-Israel ceasefire will retain, given President Donald Trump’s seemingly impulsive policy decisions and an Israeli leader who critics say pursues war to stay in power.
Backup unpredictability will also be discoverable in a weakened Iran government this is unpopular with its own people however should additionally guess that status as much as the U.S. and Israel will induce its public to rally across the flag, even though they don’t like who holds that flag.
As a U.S. international relations scholar, I feel no matter comes upcoming will likely be neatly knowledgeable via what has already came about in U.S.-Iran historical past. That incorporates an deal from Trump – who considers himself the consummate negotiator – to Iran to go back to the negotiating desk.
The shah’s utmost seek advice from to Washington
The hole bracket in fashionable U.S.-Iran family members was once the 1979 Islamic Revolution that overthrew Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi,“ whom a CIA covert action had restored to management a quarter-century previous.
As a tender Nationwide Safety Council staffer, I stood at the South Garden of the White Area because the shah’s helicopter landed in 1977 for a atmosphere seek advice from to his alike best friend, the USA.
The episode was once in all probability a metaphor for the 2 nations’ dating. I stood upcoming to a associate who had written for President Jimmy Carter remarks that included fulsome praise of the shah, however his split to me was once: “You’ll recognize the shah. He’s the one with blood under his fingernails.” Beneath a formal alliance, there was a good deal of cynicism on the U.S. part about the shah’s repressive regime and utility of undercover police to restrain opposition.
Pro- and anti-shah protesters were demonstrating on the base of the Ellipse, the terrain south of the White Area gardens. The U.S. Soil Police, understandably however unwisely, desire to separate them with tear gas, which after wafted over the court cases at the South Garden.
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The affect of the hostage catastrophe
It’s not possible to overstate the impact of the 1979 hostage catastrophe, when Iranian students seized the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, retaining 62 American hostages for 444 days.
The Carter management negotiated the Algiers Accords, which resulted in the reduce of the hostages in January 1981. There were chronic accounts, none ever totally validated, that the incoming Reagan management handled Iran to delay the release until after the new president’s inauguration.
The catastrophe now not most effective cost Carter his job, but it surely additionally solid a long lasting silhoutte over the U.S.-Iran dating, compounding American citizens’ problem in working out a regime that was once now not most effective theocratic however Muslim.
The Eighties witnessed a whipsaw of family members.
From 1980 to 1988, as Iran and Iraq fought a bloody war to a stalemate, the U.S. noticed the ability of each nations contained, but it surely did lend intelligence and logistical support to Iraq.
Next got here the Iran-Contra Affair of 1985 to 1987. It was once the Reagan management’s maximum critical scandal, through which White House officials illegally sold sanctioned arms to Iran and secretly diverted the proceeds to the Nicaraguan Contras. In a year directly out of comedian opera, Nationwide Safety Council aides introduced a favor chocolate cake to Tehran all through a undercover diplomatic venture in Might 1986.
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In 1988, a U.S. ship struck an Iranian mine within the Persian Gulf. The U.S. retaliated via destroying oil platforms and harmful Iranian ships in “Operation Praying Mantis,” and tragically – and mistakenly – shot down Iran Air Flight 655, killing 290 civilians.
The Nineteen Nineties and 2000s once more displayed the bounds of the connection.
In 1995, President Invoice Clinton imposed an oil and trade embargo in opposition to Iran, and Congress handed the Iran–Libya Sanctions Act in 1996, which imposed financial sanctions on corporations doing trade with Iran and Libya.
In 1998, Iranian President Mohammad Khatami referred to as for a “dialogue of civilizations,” prompting wary U.S. alerts of engagement.
Next, in 2002, President George W. Bush classified Iran a part of the “axis of evil,” a well-dressed rhetorical escalation. For its section, Iran alleged U.S. drone incursions and covert operations. Restricted diplomatic again channels emerged, however to incorrect result.
In 2009, President Barack Obama reached out to Tehran amid post-election unrest in Iran, however two years then Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, a a very powerful course for oil shipments to the West.
In 2015, the 2 nations have been celebration to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, with Iran agreeing to restrict its nuclear program below global oversight.
Two years then, regardless that, President Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal and reimposed sweeping sanctions in a “maximum pressure” marketing campaign.
In 2019 and 2020, a form of tit-for-tat escalations culminated within the Jan. 3, 2020, U.S. drone collision that assassinated senior Iranian General Qassem Soleimani. Iran retaliated with missile strikes on U.S. bases within the area.
U.S. sanctions continued in the Biden administration as Iran pursued deeper ties with Russia, China and nonstate proxies, particularly Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.
What classes?
What will also be discovered from this tangled historical past?
First, that negotiations are imaginable between the 2 nations, however they’re neither simple nor prone to manufacture greater than restricted results. Certainly, high-level oblique talks mediated via Oman started in April 2025, regardless that they have been in postponed when the U.S. bombers struck.
2d, in spite of the Iran regime’s unpopularity, regime change in Iran is unlikely. Assassinating Ayatollah Ali Khameini would most probably help the “rally ‘round the flag” impact, as did the assassination of Soleimani.
3rd, Iran has been cautious in its responses even to Israeli aggression however particularly in enticing the U.S. in army battle, a warning the American B-2 bombings on June 21 can most effective underscore.
Iran needed to retaliate, so the attack on the U.S. base in Qatar got here as incorrect awe. However Iran was once cautious in retaliating, even notifying the U.S. in advance.
The losing of U.S. bombs, adopted via Iran’s careful retaliation, was once the chance for Trump to build an deal Iran couldn’t negative.